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Leading Sceptic's Climate Change U Turn?
When one of the world's best known climate change deniers starts talking about how we can deal with climate related problems you might expect the climate scienceology cultists to be cheering. They are remarkable quiet howeer about Bjorn Lomborg's new book because it reveals he has never behn a climate change denier as he was dubbed but was merely questioning the shaky science on which the carbon driven AGW case was based.

Leading Sceptic's Climate Change U Turn
by Ian R Thorpe.
2010-10-28
CREATIVE COMMONS: Attribute, non commercial, no derivs.
KEYWORDS: climate, change, environment, lomborg, global, warming, technology, rainforest, oceans, engineering, carbon, emissions, science, scientists, IPCC, government

The world's best known and probably most demonised climate change sceptic recently declared that global warming is "undoubtedly one of the chief concerns facing the world today" and "a challenge humanity must confront", in an apparent U-turn that would, if it was what it seemed to be, have given a huge boost to the embattled environmental lobby.

Bjrn Lomborg, who describes himself as a "sceptical environmentalist" was once compared to Adolf Hitler by the UN's climate chief, Rajendra Pachauri. He is famous for attacking climate scientists, campaigners, the media and others for exaggerating the rate of global warming and its effects on humans, and the costly failures of policies to stop the problem. Lomborgs about face is not all it seems to be however. He has never sought to deny that humankind will, in the coming century, have to face up to serious problems because of changes in weather patterns that will affect food and water supplies and environmentally significant natural features such as rainforest, bogs and wetlands and the oceans all of which are important in creating an environment capable of sustaining life at current levels.

In his new book Lomborg will calls for tens of billions of dollars a year to be invested in tackling climate change. "Investing $100bn annually would mean that we could essentially resolve the climate change problem by the end of this century," the book concludes.

Examining eight methods to reduce or stop global warming, Lomborg and his fellow economists recommend pouring money into researching and developing clean energy sources such as wind, wave, solar and nuclear power, and more work on climate engineering ideas such as "cloud whitening" to reflect the sun's heat back into the outer atmosphere.

In an interview for The Guardian newspaper, he proposed financing investment through a tax on carbon emissions that would also raise $50bn to mitigate the effect of climate change, for example by building better sea defences, and $100bn for global healthcare.

We already know that any scheme involving those kinds of taxes and the levels of taxation that would be needed to raise such sums just will not fly. In the advanced nations of Europe working populations are already saturated with taxes, the UK government for example takes 52% of what Britons make in direct, indirect and stealth taxes; in the USA the majority of people do not like taxation and any rise on current levels will be strongly resisted as is about to be demonstrated in next week's mid - term elections to Senate and The House of Representatives.

So what game is the Swede playing if he suddenly wants to jump on a bandwagon that has lost its wheels? Lomborg was never a climate change denier, he was sceptical about the case for carbon driven global warming which, as those readers who have followed the arguments will remember was based on nothing more that climate scientists being unable to think what else might have caused the rise in average global temperatures between the 1950s and 1990s. He was also sceptical about the notion of basing the entire case on evidence obtained from mathematical modelling and ignoring empirical studies unless their data backed up the output from the computer models. And he was very sceptical of the principal proposal of the carbon - driven AGW fans for the creation of a global market in carbon emissions especially as it would be controlled by the kind of people who are heavily involved in The Bilderberg Group.

Although Rajendra Pachauri, head of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is on record as having compared Lomborg to Hitler, he has now given an unlikely endorsement to the new book, Smart Solutions to Climate Change. In a quote for the launch, Pachauri said: "This book provides not only a reservoir of information on the reality of human-induced climate change, but raises vital questions and examines viable options on what can be done."

Again we must look at this "slantwise" rather than taking it at face value. Pachauri has been under increasing pressure to resign following a number of scandals involving the climate science community including the "Climategate" leaked e-mails in which leading climate scientists were revealed to have colluded to sideline academic works that challenged the mainstream message, attacked and smeared environmentalists who questioned the carbon driven AGW case and destroyed data so that their work could not be scrutinized and challenged.

Pachauri is desperately trying to hold onto his job having been exposed as a man driven by self interest. What better way to begin his redemption than by embracing the work of a man whose reputation he had sought to undermine.

Lomborg denies he has performed a volte face, pointing out that even in his first book he accepted the existence of man-made global warming. "The point I've always been making is it's not the end of the world," he told the Guardian. "That's why we should be measuring up to what everybody else says, which is we should be spending our money well." This is entirely consistent with the position for which he was demonised by the carbon loonytoons lobby. The whole campaign of fear and panic drummed up by the carbonistas relies on over dramatizing a possible warming trend that if it continues on the scientific trajectory mapped out for it by the climate scientists mathematical models (highly unlikely given the vagaries of nature) will not really start to seriously hurt until towards the end of the this century. We are now at the end of the first decade.

Consider the changes that took place in the world over the course of the twentieth century and you realise what the carbonistas are advising you to do is mortgage everything you own and bet it all on a three legged runner in a classic horserace.

Personally I think Lomborg is barking up the wrong tree if not simply barking mad. His argument is based on the Copenhagen Consensus project in which a group of economists were asked to consider how best to spend $ for the greatest good of the greatest number. The first results, in 2004, put global warming near the bottom of the list, arguing instead for policies such as fighting malaria and HIV/Aids. A revision of the exercise in 2008 included new ideas for reducing the temperature rise, some of which emerged about halfway up the ranking. Lomborg said he then decided to consider a much wider variety of policies to reduce global warming, "so it wouldn't end up at the bottom".

The case was examined again, considering not just the dominant international policy to cut carbon emissions, but also seven other "solutions" including more investment in technology, climate engineering, and planting more trees and reducing soot and methane, also significant contributors to climate change.

"If the world is going to spend hundreds of millions to treat climate, where could you get the most bang for your buck?" was the question posed, Lomborg says. After the analyses, five economists were asked to rank the 15 possible policies which emerged. Current policies to cut carbon emissions through taxes - which Lomborg is critical of even though he suggests it must be looked at - were ranked largely at the bottom of four of the lists. At the top were more direct public investment in research and development rather than spending money on low carbon energy now, and climate engineering.

Lomborg acknowledged public confidence was a problem when committing to long term research and development projects, but said politicians had already reneged on promises to cut emissions, and spending on developing new technology would be easier to monitor. Although many believe private companies are better at R&D than governments, Lomborg said low carbon energy was a special case comparable to massive public investment in computers from the 1950s, which later precipitated the commercial IT revolution. It is here that Lomborg loses the plot. Without going off at a tangent to dismantle the fallacy that public investment in computers led the development of IT in commerce I an tell you as somebody who was involved in IT from the 1960s that business and government computer projects developed quite independently of each other until IBM, fattened by gorging on public money was big enough to crush its rivals.

Similarly the development of any successful new technologies will be driven by need rather than the climate science creed. If we are serious about taking on the challenge of climate chaos however, sooner or later the politicians and academics must start to discuss the real cause of our problems, overpopulation.

In Europe we are already addressing that. There has been very little increase in the indigenous population of most developed nations in Europe for several decades, the increases logged in census data are almost entirely due to mass immigration as a result of the idiotic immigration policies insisted upon by politically correct thinking in the international community. In the USA I have read the situation is similar, if that is true then the most advanced nations have, without any government intervention, managed to impose population control on themselves.

Mention population control however and you will have the politically correct left screaming about eugenics, the holocaust and Naziism. If we cannot have a rational discussion about the real problems we cannot ever begin work on solving our problems. Ignore Bjorn Lomborg then and Rajendra Pachauri, Al Gore and Michael Mann, they are all bubble dwellers, they do not live in the real world. Only people like you and I can solve the problems but before we can get started we have to sweep away all the dead leaves of politically correct thinking and start being honest with ourselves.

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