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Shale Gas and Oil Equals Salvation? Sadly not. by Ian R Thorpe.
Recent discoveries of huge gas and oil bearing shale deposits in the USA, CAnada, Russia and under Britain's territorial waters as well as off the Falkland Islands and in the Antarctic are raising false hope of an early end to the energy crisis and food price inflation. What is the reality of these new oil and gas reserves, do they really offer the economies of the developed world salvation and a return to business as usual.

Shale Oil and Gas, The Saviour Of Civilisation
by Ian R Thorpe.
2011-02-10
CREATIVE COMMONS: Attribute, non commercial, no derivs.
KEYWORDS: shale, oil, gas, energy, nuclear, coal, marine, natural, fuel, heatig, industry, domestic, USA,UK, Canada, Irish, Atlantic, prices, inflation, food, chemicals, power, electricity, marine

Talk of an oil and gas shale glut is raising false hopes among businessmen hit hard by rising fuel prices. Prices for petrol, diesil, domestic heating oil amd gas for industry and himes will remain high. High prices are the price the UK will pay for keeping the lights on and the wheels turning. Fortunately Britain is better placed placed than many competitor nations to ride out the storms that must come as grobal oil and gas reserves from traditional deposits are depleted.

With tensions rising throughout the Middle East as evidenced by the trouble in Egypt over the past three weeks the price of oil in international markets has broken through $100 a barrel again, two years after it briefly rose above that level. Price increases due to rsing demand and worries about political instability have been exacerbated by a sudden upsurge in the activity of Somali pirates (Pirates seize Greek Tanker ... Italian Tanker Taken By Somali Pirates ). This combination of events has already raised concerns about the possible impact on economic recovery in the developed nations.

Looking beyond these regional geopolitical influences, prices are on the rise across the globe. A wide range of essential commodities including food, chemicals, oil and rare earth metals essential in the manufacture of high tech goods all appear to be on an inflationary trajectory. Gas is no exception. Wholesale prices on the UK spot market doubled from 30p a thermal unti (therm) in March 2010 to 60p by December. Futures prices for 2011 rose by nearly 50% over the same period. This hockey stick shaped increase is responsible for the recent jump in domestic heating bills.

Casual observers may be confused by this upward trend. They have read about the discovery of major shale gas deposits in the USA, Canada, Russia and the Antarctic as well as large fields under the Irish Sea and in the mid Atlantic around the remote, rocky outcrop of Rockall. It used to be said, "There's **** - all on Rockall." Well not for much longer it seems.

News of these reserves has been hailed as a long-term saviour of western industrial economies which could lead to a global gas and oil glut. Shale has certainly revolutionised the US market, releasing vast, and hitherto uneconomic reserves. It now accounts for 20% of production there, up from just 5% in 2006. As a result, the price of natural gas in the US has fallen by 40% over the last three years. It now has trades at around half the cost of gas in the UK.

In spite of the optimism there are many reasons for seeing the shale gas bonanza as largely confined to the USA, at least for the foreseeable future. Although the existence of gas-bearing shales in the States has been known for decades, the potential of these reserves has only recently been unlocked through a combination of access to previously protected land, and the higher world prices providing an incentive for owners, extraction companies and refiners to take on the difficult and costly operrations of releasing useable reserves from the shale.

These conditions are unlikely to be replicated anywhere else that oil and gas bearing shale deposits have been identified All the UK's resources are under water which more than doubles the difficulty of getting the payload to where it can be processed into something industry and homes can use. Though shale might buy the US government time its short term impact on world markets may be very limited. The long-term trend however will remain inexorably upwards. Among consuming countries, Asian gas demand grew at more than 10% last year, and with Asian firms perpared to pay the asking price this alone has been capable of supporting the rise in wholesale prices. Barring a significant recession in the region, Asia's demand for Liquid Natural Gas will continue to increase.

For developed economies switching from coal to gas power generation is a cost-effective method of achieving emission reduction targets. Older Coal-fired power stations are dirty and inefficient. They need replacing as soon as possible; old nuclear plants too are nearing the end of their useful life. A programme of closures must commence in five years at the most. With only one project to generate realistic amounts of energy from sustainable, reliable sources on the drawing board, the 2 Gwatt Orkney Marine Power scheme, we can see few prospects of a reduction in demand. Therfore what oil and gas we get from shale will only fill the gap left by other sources such as the Arabian oil fields running out (Wikileaks - Saudi oil reserves overstated)

The shale deposits are good news because they offer us the hope of keeping the wheels of industry turning and keeping ourselves fed. Those siren voices proclaiming an end to recession broght about by a new oil boom are just bankers and politicians singing the same old song in the hope of tricking us into restarting static economies by taking on more personal debt.

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A Roundup Of All Our Climate Change PostsSee a listing of all our climate change and environment related posts form the several sites we have

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In this section we do not necessarily support the views expressed in linked articles but try to give a coss section of interesting and well written articles that we think are likely to stir things up a bit.

COMMENT:
(A random and ecletic mix of what we thought was worth reading recently)

The Question That Wob't Go Away: Who Is Barack Obama?
So now Chris Matthews isn’t the only one experiencing a little thrill when he thinks about Barack (omit middle name) Obama. The recent revelation that from the early 1990s until the day before yesterday—or, to be more accurate, until Obama made his decision to run for president—a biographical pamphlet circulated by his literary agents described him as having been “born in Kenya” has been setting the world of ...

How The Grexit May Make Things Worse In Greece
It looks more likely that Greece will crash out of the euro. But if it attempts to return to the drachma, there's a pretty big problem, which no one's really come up with a way to fix. The printers at De La Rue or its rivals are, according to reports, preparing to run off some new Greek banknotes ...

Is America Really A Post White Nation or Is This Writer Spouting Typical Progressive Claptrap When is a majority less than a majority? Answer: when the minority is bigger. This is what has just happened in the US: births to the white majority in America fell in the first six months of last year to just 49.6 per cent of the total, meaning that Caucasians, as they are quaintly known, may within the next 30 years become an endangered species.Given America’s boast that it is a land of ...

The New Reactionaries by Victor Davis Hanson, Pajamas Media
About fifteen years ago, many liberals began to self-identify as progressives—partly because of the implosion of the Great Society and the Reagan reaction that had tarnished the liberal brand and left it as something akin to “permissive” or “naïve,” partly because “progressive” was supposedly ...

Wind farms can cause climate change, finds new study
Wind farms can cause climate change, according to new research, that shows for the first time the new technology is already pushing up temperatures.

I Promise You The President Has A Big Stick says vice president
Vice President Joe Biden went after presumptive GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney in a campaign address at New York University, questioning the former Massachusetts governor’s chops on foreign policy. And, he was there to try to prop up his boss’ credentials ....

Minimum Alcohol Pricing Shambles by Dick Puddlecote
You have to wonder if UK politicians who have been promoting minimum alcohol pricing might have been a bit pissed when they made the decision to go for it. Consider this response to a parliamentary question tabled by a UKIP member of the House of Lords ...

Asinine bureaucrats
I shared Gildas’ rage yesterday; he fared better than I, he was actually able to articulate his rage. PMQs left me quite speechless and I abandoned the effort to write.PMQs has become a monotonously unfolding pantomime of ...

A Spectacular Devaluation But no Recovery In Sight
The sterling effective exchange rate is one reason why the UK has recorded the highest inflation rate of any advanced economy. With the onset of the crisis, the Bank of England allowed sterling to depreciate dramatically ...

Salt Tax Again
Salt is now the same as tobacco. Soon there will never be a heart attack again, anywhere in the world, and the drones will live in morose greyness for all eternity. Well, I like tobacco, but I won’t die if I can’t get any. It’s a fun part of life ...

Obama Message Booed ~ In Massachusetts (by Allahpundit)
Well, it stands to reason. Massachusetts is a deep red state. Wait, what?
I held off blogging this yesterday in hopes that video would emerge but after almost 24 hours I’ve given up hope. It started when Romney advisor Eric Fehrnstrom tweeted: ...

The second front - the new fear and panic tactic to replace AGW
Apr 22, 2012 Greens If the struggle to put climatology back on a scientific footing were not bad enough, the UN has just set up a new intergovernmental body, which will push biodiversity as the new excuse to "scare 'n' tax".

Inequality: a middle-class obsession by Daniel Ben-Ami
Unlike past warriors for equality, today’s campaigners simply dislike both the super-rich and ‘trailer trash’.

Executive Order 13547: “The Sleeping Power Grab” (by Erika Johnsen)
To be fair, President Obama’s executive-order output hasn’t unreasonably outpaced that of his predecessors – his especial willingness to actively circumvent Congress and snatch huge gobs of power for the federal bureaucracy only makes it feel like he has. In July of 2010, President Obama signed executive order 13547 – “Stewardship of ...

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