Brexit - The End Of The European Superstate Dream?

by Ian R Thorpe

Winning the general election was really the easy bit for David Cameron. The Prime Minister now faces the real fight of his life, he must take on the European Union to forge a new deal for Britain that satisfies his party and the country. It’s a historic endeavour, one that will determine how we govern ourselves, indeed whether we govern ourselves or are ruled by unelected bureaucrats in Brussels. The outcome will also determine our place in the world and our national identity.

If Cameron can get a deal that satisfies Eurosceptics by repatriated sovereign powers ceded to the Bureaucrats of Brussels over the past three decades, while keeping us in a close economic relationship with the EU while releasing us from the obligation to let Brussels dictate the terms our economic relationships with emerging economies such as India, Brazil and Nigeria, and traditional powers such as Russia and China, he will be chronicled as one of our most significant prime ministers. On the downside, should he fail he could be out of a job this time next year, his astonishing election triumph long since forgotten and his party split beyond repair.

There are two strategic options now open to the Prime Minister. He could go for broke, state that he is prepared to advocate a Brexit if he doesn’t get what he wants, and demand a significant repatriation of powers. It is important not to miss a vital point here however. If we remain joined at the political hip to the EU then regardless of any treaty changes we are signed up for progressive creeping federalism. This has been the tendency throughout our relationship with Brussels, bureaucracy has the persistence of water and eventually we accept the E U's metaplan regardless of whatever temporary obstacles we may put in its way.

A possible Brexit is not a simply single issue. Immigration, Nigel Farage and UKIP are inextricably linked to a potential 4 million referendum voters. The economics aren't as simple as mainstream media commentators make them seem either. To leave the EU would be a catalyst for extensive change. We would be leading the way to a more open and inclusive era of global trading. Other strong European countries would be very likely to follow our example. It wouldn't be Britain leaving, it would be Europe deciding to quit being a little, introverted group of protectionist traders and embracing not globalism in the sense of global government, free movement of people (from poor areas to those that offer the best social benefits) and globalized finance policy but free trade with the world. This is not a minor change which should be considered in the light of what we might lose or win if we decided to exit, it would be a radical change for all.

A Facebook friend who thinks of herself as a left wing activist recently discovered the iniquitous European Union / United States free trade deal TTIP. "Cameron is about to sign us up to this terrible, anti democratic trade deal," she blogged. While I sympathise entirely with her feeliings about TTIP, she was wrong to accuse David Cameron. Neither he nor Ed Miliband, had the outcome of the election been different, could be responsible for signing us up to any trade treaty, we ceded the power to negotiate our own trade deals sometime in the last two decades, now Britain cannot enter into a treaty with India, Nigeria, Brazil or any other trading nation, we can only be part of a treaty that covers twenty eight very different nations. It is very important that in the run up to the EU referendum we make sure people understand that.

Europe has been too closeted since the First World War. We have feared our own shadows and clung together as if trapped in a bad marriage in which both parties are suffocated by each other and cannot grow and develop as individuals. This has allowed the wounds inflicted on the Middle East, Africa, South Americ and South East Asia by the twentiethy century's wars to fester into implacable hatred and dydtopian lawlessness.

Europe's wars are over, the big Russian bear has fragmented and China has become a trading super power in need of our help to move fully to a democratic system. The free world's Rotweiller, the USA, has lost its teeth and become senile before its time because because its great experiment in multiculturalism failed and created a fragmented and deeply divided society. Power corrupted Washington and the political elite became so hubristic they believed they could trample the natural laws that have held communities, tribes and nations together since the beginnings of civilisation. US power needs to be and is being challenged diplomatically and economically.

Brexit is far more significant than the small, mean stories of racist, xenophobic Little Englanders the left currently tell. It could be as economically and socially invigorating as the the industrial revolution or victory against Bonaparte's French Empire was for Britain in the previous centuries. It could quickly pave the way for something far better that what continued membership and 'ever closer union' offer; a return to the idea of Europe as a free trade bloc, a community of nations co-operating on trade but each responsible for their own laws and governance, rather than what the EU has become, a sclerotic monstrosity presided over by an ersatz elite that is totally out of touch with the great mass of diverse people in the various member states and thus oblivious to their values and aspirations as it imposes 'one-size-fits-all' solutions that actually fit nobody.

What we decide in the coming referendum may be the most important thing we have ever decided because a Yes vote would sever the old economic links with the British Commonwealth nations and push the entire world towards forming economic blocs that would coexist in a state of crippled stagnation and fractious, bitter infighting. A Yes vote would mean a decision to embrace a future that while uncertain, is filled with infinite possibilities for incredible change, maturity and growth as Britain would be free to reassert itself as the hub of global trade.

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